“All Hands On Deck!”: A Trump Presidency Would Sink All Boats
Hello, investors. Come join the foreign policy experts in daily panic attacks over what a President Donald Trump would mean for your world. What does one do about a candidate whose tax plan would send America into the fiscal abyss — who flaps lips about not making good on the national debt?
Should we be investing in the makers of Xanax and Klonopin? And on the personal side, are there enough benzodiazepines to go around?
We’re not talking just about the very rich. Anyone with a retirement account or a small portfolio has something to lose. The economic consensus is that a Trump presidency would sink all boats. And that certainly applies to Trump’s own economically struggling followers in the least seaworthy craft.
“Most Rust Belt working-class Americans don’t get it,” Bob Deitrick, CEO of Polaris Financial Partners in Westerville, Ohio, told me. “The working class thinks he’s going to stick it to the elites.”
The facts: The Trump tax plan would deliver an average tax cut of $1.3 million to those with annual incomes exceeding $3.7 million. The lowest-income households would get $128. (No missing zeros here.)
Folks in the middle would see federal taxes reduced by about $2,700, which sounds nice but would come out of their own hide. Medicare and other programs that benefit the middle class would have to be slashed. So would spending on science research, infrastructure and services essential to the U.S. economy.
Or we could skip the very deep spending cuts and see the national debt balloon by nearly 80 percent of gross domestic product, calculation courtesy of the Tax Policy Center.
Some might think that Trump’s tax plan — including the repeal of the federal tax on estates bigger than $5.43 million — would impress the income elite, but they would be wrong. In a recent poll of Fortune 500 executives, 58 percent of the respondents said they would support Hillary Clinton over Trump.
Most in this Republican-leaning group are undoubtedly asking themselves: What good is a fur-lined deck chair if the ship’s going down?
Then there are the others.
“Do middle-class Americans have any idea what could happen to the economy or the stock market if our president ever vaguely suggested defaulting on the national debt?” Deitrick asked. (His clients tend to be upper-middle-class investors.)
He recalls the summer of 2011, when a congressional game of chicken over raising the federal debt ceiling led to the possibility of a default. The Dow lost 2,400 points in a single week. And taxpayers were hit with $1.3 billion in higher borrowing costs that year alone.
Trump said on CNN that he is the “king of debt,” which in practice means he frequently doesn’t honor it. That’s why many major lenders shun him, talking of “Donald risk.”
Speaking of, Trump famously said in a Trump University interview, “I sort of hope (the real estate market crashes), because then people like me would go in and buy.”
But he also predicted that the real estate market would not tank — shortly before it did. Perhaps he never figured out there was a housing bubble. Or it was part of a clever scheme to peddle real estate courses with brochures asking, “How would you like to market-proof your financial future?”
Imagine a whole country taking on “Donald risk.”
The business community runs on stability. It can’t prosper under a showman who says crazy things and denies having said them moments later. A Trump presidency promises more chaos than a Marx Brothers movie — and you can believe it would be a lot less fun.
By: Froma Harrop, The National Memo, June 7, 2016
“Evasiveness And Apparent Misstatements”: Rubio’s Controversial Finances Keep Getting Messier
The most damaging political controversies tend to be the easiest to understand. To this extent, Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) current flap has the potential to do some harm: in the broadest sense, it’s a story of a presidential candidate who’s made a mess of his personal finances and who’s made claims about the controversy that don’t appear to be true.
Rubio’s rivals are likely to present a question the typical voter will probably find pretty straightforward: should a politician who’s struggled to responsibly oversee his own finances be trusted to help oversee the entire country’s finances?
It’s the details, however, that get a little more complex. The New York Times reported this morning:
A decade after he began using a Republican Party credit card for personal purchases like paving stones at his home, Senator Marco Rubio on Wednesday pledged to disclose new spending records from that account as he sought to inoculate himself against what could be his biggest liability as a presidential candidate: how he manages his finances.
The decision to release the records highlights the enduring potency of a controversy rooted in Mr. Rubio’s days as a young state representative in Florida that he and his aides thought had been put to rest with his 2010 election to the Senate.
I’m not sure I’d characterize this as Rubio’s “biggest liability” – his bizarre mishandling of the immigration issue strikes me as more important – but as Republican primary voters weigh their 2016 choices, the senator’s difficulties in managing his own money probably won’t do his candidacy any favors.
The basic outline is made up of a few embarrassing elements. During his time as a Florida legislator, for example, Rubio occasionally mixed personal and business expenses, including using party money to repair his minivan, and charging $10,000 to attend a family reunion, which is legally questionable, before eventually paying the money back. He also co-owned property with a scandal-plagued colleague, failed to detail the mortgage on financial disclosure forms, and then faced foreclosure.
There’s also the odd liquidation of Rubio’s retirement account – even after the senator received a seven-figure book deal – and the fact that he took on more than $900,000 in debt when his net worth was about $8,300.
But it’s Rubio’s evasiveness and apparent misstatements that arguably matter just as much.
For example, Rubio has acknowledged improperly using a Republican Party credit card for personal use, but at least so far, he’s “refused to provide credit card statements from 2005 and 2006.”
The GOP senator said yesterday he intends to release the records “in the next few weeks.” Why it’s taken so long to prepare the records – materials Florida journalists have sought for years – is unclear.
Rubio has acknowledged “a lack of bookkeeping skills,” which may or may not bother voters. But there’s the related question of whether he’s been fully forthcoming about his messy finances.
For example, Rubio said yesterday that he went through his charges “every month” and reimbursed the personal expenses initially paid for with party money. However, the Tampa Bay Times reported, “Records show Rubio sent payments to American Express totaling $13,900 for his personal expenses during his tenure as House speaker. But those payments were not made monthly. He made no contributions to the bill during one six-month stretch in 2007, the records show.”
Rubio also said yesterday, “[E]very expense on that card is detailed in the Republican Party accounts that they file every month with, reports that they have to file with the state.” But this doesn’t appear to be quite right, since there are still two years of undisclosed charges.
Rubio claimed two weeks ago that all of these line of inquiry have been “discredited.” But we know this isn’t true – all of these questions point to evidence that hasn’t been refuted. Indeed, let’s not forget that while a state ethics commission did not pursue the matter against Rubio, a commission investigator accused Rubio of “negligence” on the credit card issue, adding that his failures were “disturbing.”
As a general defense, the presidential candidate said yesterday, “[The] bottom line is I obviously don’t come from a wealthy family.” That’s true, but I’m not sure how it’s relevant. The typical American doesn’t come from wealth, either, but they don’t routinely find themselves in the kind of messy situation Rubio created.
Put it this way: if Hillary Clinton’s finances were this messy, some of her documents went undisclosed for years, and some of her claims appeared dubious under scrutiny, isn’t it fair to say it’d be the biggest political story in the country?
By: Steve Benen, The Maddow Blog, November 5, 2015
“Raiders Of The Lost Retirement Account”: Wall Street’s Deceptive Retirement Account Fees Hurt Savers
Worried about your ability to set money aside for retirement? You should also worry about what happens to the money you do manage to put away. According to a report from Demos, the typical two-earner family with an employer-sponsored account will end up paying some 30 percent of its retirement nest egg – a total of $155,000 – to Wall Street money managers in 401(k) fees and charges.
How can this be? The financial services industry, in addition to its talent for developing different kinds of fees, has been adept at coming up with ways of concealing them. To start with, many of the fees and costs that Wall Street collects for trading securities are typically omitted from the top-line “expense ratio” reported to savers. That’s a pretty huge omission, since trading fees account for half the fees charged to an average investor, according to Demos.
The industry also makes its fees look small by typically reporting them as a percentage of total savings, avoiding any mention of the far higher proportion they make up of your total investment return. For example, a total fee that adds up to 2 percent of managed assets may seem small – but if your typical return is 7 percent, the fee represents almost 30 percent of total returns.
One of the biggest advantages enjoyed by industry lies in the nature of the professional advice available to investors seeking to understand such questions. Astoundingly, the broker who sells you a retirement product often has no obligation to serve your best interests, or even to provide you with reliable counsel. Instead, the law often gives brokers a green light to promote products that generate higher fees for them, regardless of the impact on you.
The non-partisan Government Accountability Office has documented numerous instances of such conflicts of interest. The GAO not only found investment managers cross-selling products to 401(k) clients that enriched the manager at the investor’s expense, but also brokers being rewarded for steering investors into high-fee products. One report found that almost a quarter of telephone representatives and half of web sites incorrectly informed investors that no fees would be levied for managing their retirement money if they transferred it into an individual retirement account. In fact, fees are charged on these products, but are usually buried deep in the fine print of the IRA documents.
The good news is that these problems have found a place on the agenda of Washington regulators. The bad news is that the necessary remedies face tremendous opposition. In fact, the way things are going, it will take a mighty effort to keep industry lobbyists from winning the fight to keep investors in the dark.
The Department of Labor has taken up the task of updating the legal protections covering 401(k)s and other employment-based retirement accounts. Certain forms of retirement savings (especially those managed directly by your employer) are already protected by a strong fiduciary duty – that is, a legal requirement for the investment manager to put your best interests first. But the fiduciary-duty rules are outmoded, and exclude much of the current retirement-fund market.
These fiduciary rules were last updated in 1975 – a time when over 90 percent of retirement plans were controlled directly by employers. That’s very different from today’s individualized accounts like 401(k)s and IRAs. As a result, employees have no legal protection when engaged in many transactions, including the critical one of “rolling over” a 401-K into an IRA. In order for the new rules to be effective, the Department of Labor will have to impose a clear ban on inappropriate steering of clients, including strict limitations on broker-payment arrangements that create conflicts of interest, along with much better disclosure.
And it will have to do so in the face of fierce resistance from the financial industry. The Department of Labor recently had to retreat on one proposal to improve fiduciary rules in a debate dominated by insider interests such as brokers and investment managers who benefit from the current high fees and lack of obligations to clients. Now the department is preparing to propose reforms again, and the same interests will try to defeat them again. The public needs regulators and legislators to stand up for better protections for our savings, and prevent the process from being dominated by financial insiders.
The Dodd-Frank financial reform law also handed an important responsibility to the Securities and Exchange Commission – the task of developing new rules to increase fiduciary protections for advice given by securities brokers. Right now, while investment advisors have a duty to put your best interests first, securities brokers don’t. In practice, the distinction between the two types of investment professionals is blurred and unclear to most investors. The Dodd-Frank law called for securities-broker fiduciary duties to be made stronger, clearer and more like those of true investment advisors.
Unfortunately, this is another area where heavy industry lobbying has greatly delayed and weakened action. Preliminary indications suggest that the SEC’s approach could end up being far weaker than is needed to protect investors.
The issues in retirement savings are broad, and new fiduciary rules won’t take care of all of them. But a strong legal obligation for all investment advisors to avoid deceptive and abusive practices would be a common-sense start. And that can only happen if investors and employees stand up for the principle that when financial professionals give advice, they must put the best interests of their clients first.
By: Marcus Stanley, U. S. News and World Report, June 4, 2013
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